Are Home Prices Really Falling? What 6 Indian Palms Sales Reveal

What if home prices aren't really falling as much as we think? What if, in some neighborhoods, they're simply returning to a more normal long-term appreciation trend?

It's a question I recently started asking myself, and it led me down a fascinating real estate research rabbit hole.

As a REALTOR® serving the Greater Palm Springs and Coachella Valley area, I've watched our local housing market go through some extraordinary changes over the past several years.

And this time, I'm experiencing those changes personally because I'm selling my own home.

Like many sellers, I've found myself thinking about what my property might have sold for during the height of the market. But then I started looking at things a little differently.

What if we're focusing too much on peak prices and not enough on long-term appreciation?

So I decided to investigate. (CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE VIDEO ON YOUTUBE)

A Different Way to Think About Home Values

For decades, real estate professionals have commonly used approximately 4% annual home price appreciation as a long-term planning benchmark.

That doesn't mean every home increases in value by 4% every year. Some markets appreciate faster, some slower, and prices can decline.

But using 4% as a hypothetical benchmark gives us an interesting way to evaluate how properties have performed over time.

For example, a home purchased for $350,000 six years ago would have a hypothetical value of approximately $443,000 today if it appreciated at a steady 4% annually.

What happens when we compare that number with actual sales?

What Happened to the Coachella Valley Housing Market?

Between 2020 and 2022, the housing market experienced an extraordinary period.

Mortgage interest rates dropped, buyer demand surged, and home prices climbed rapidly.

Here in the Coachella Valley, short-term rental investment activity added another layer of demand in certain neighborhoods.

Indian Palms Country Club in Indio is one example. Its relatively accommodating short-term rental environment attracted investment interest during the boom.

As mortgage rates rose and rental market conditions changed, some investors faced increased competition and weaker-than-expected returns.

That contributed to a changing resale environment, although interest rates, broader housing supply, and buyer demand also played important roles.

For homeowners who watched estimated property values climb dramatically, the subsequent adjustment has been frustrating.

But a decline from a peak price doesn't necessarily mean a property has performed poorly over the long term.

I Looked at Six Actual Indian Palms Home Sales

To test my idea, I researched six properties in Indian Palms Country Club using local MLS records.

Each property had a previous sale between 2017 and 2021 and another closed sale in 2026.

I compared the actual 2026 sale price with what the earlier purchase price would have become using 4% annual compounded appreciation.

Here's what I found:

All six properties sold above their hypothetical 4% appreciation benchmarks.

That's an interesting result, especially given how much attention has been paid to declining home prices.

These properties weren't necessarily identical in condition between sales. Some had improvements, including outdoor upgrades, and those investments may have contributed to their resale prices.

This is also a small, selected sample, not a comprehensive study of Indian Palms or the Coachella Valley market.

Nevertheless, it demonstrates why the time frame matters when evaluating home price changes.

One Home Tells the Story Particularly Well

Consider a property on Wayne Street in Indian Palms.

Its sales history illustrates how two seemingly contradictory statements can both be true.

• February 2021: Sold for $360,000

• August 2023: Sold for $535,000

• June 2026: Sold for $480,000

From 2023 to 2026, its sale price declined by $55,000, or approximately 10.3%.

For someone who purchased in 2023, that represents a real decline in property value, before accounting for improvements and transaction costs.

But from the 2021 sale price to the 2026 sale price, the home increased by $120,000, or 33.3%.

Using our hypothetical 4% appreciation rate, its projected 2026 value would have been approximately $444,000.

The actual sale was higher.

The same home experienced a substantial decline from its 2023 sale price and still showed strong appreciation compared with its 2021 price.

Both facts matter.

Real Estate Is Usually a Long-Term Investment

Homeownership isn't typically a short-term investment strategy.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®' 2026 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, the median seller had owned their home for 12 years before selling.

That is a significant change from the shorter ownership periods commonly seen in earlier decades.

And it reinforces something I've believed throughout my real estate career: When evaluating property appreciation, the length of ownership matters.

Buying a home with the intention of selling in one or two years exposes you to very different risks than purchasing a home you plan to own for a decade.

Of course, longer ownership doesn't guarantee a profit. Maintenance, improvements, property taxes, financing, insurance, and selling expenses all affect the financial outcome.

But it does provide a different perspective on short-term price fluctuations.

What Does This Mean for Homeowners in 2026?

If you're considering selling your home in Palm Springs, Indio, Palm Desert, La Quinta, or elsewhere in the Coachella Valley, I think it's worth asking a few questions.

What did you originally pay for your home?

How long have you owned it?

How has your particular neighborhood performed?

And are you comparing today's market value with your original investment, or with an extraordinary market peak that may not have been sustainable?

Your home's current value is determined by today's market, not by what you wish it had sold for two or three years ago.

But understanding the full history can help put that value into perspective.

Falling Compared to What?

That's the question I keep coming back to.

When we hear that home prices are falling, we need to ask: Falling compared to what?

The peak of the pandemic-era housing boom?

Last year's prices?

Or the purchase prices homeowners paid five, seven, or ten years ago?

The answer can change the entire conversation.

I'm not suggesting that every market is performing well or that every homeowner has gained equity. Some properties have declined in value, and some owners who purchased near the peak face difficult decisions today.

But the six Indian Palms properties I researched tell an interesting story about long-term appreciation.

Sometimes the market can be cooling while long-term homeowners are still ahead.

And that perspective is worth remembering.

Curious What Your Coachella Valley Home Is Worth Today?

Whether you're considering selling, buying, or simply trying to understand how your property fits into the current market, I'd be happy to help you evaluate the numbers.

Visit https://angellrealestate.com to explore Greater Palm Springs real estate and connect with me.

Because real estate decisions deserve more than headlines. They deserve context, local knowledge, and a clear understanding of the numbers.

Data: Local MLS property and listing histories, reviewed November 11, 2026. Six selected Indian Palms Country Club repeat-sale properties. The 4% appreciation rate is illustrative, not a forecast or guaranteed return. Figures do not account for property improvements, carrying costs, financing, taxes, or selling expenses.

Lisa Angell, REALTOR® | LPT Realty | CA DRE#02122706 | Equal Housing Opportunity.